Analysis Identifies Pattern of Suspicious Deaths and Institutional Decay in India Amid Strategic Political Shifts

Analysis Identifies Pattern of Suspicious Deaths and Institutional Decay in India Amid Strategic Political Shifts

While India’s pattern is described as more “ambiguous” than the overt state-sponsored assassinations seen in nations like Russia or Saudi Arabia, the analysis places it within a global playbook of authoritarian tactics.

By Rakesh Raman
New Delhi | January 30, 2026

NEW DELHI — A comprehensive risk analysis published on January 28, 2026, has identified an alarming pattern of suspicious deaths and “institutional doubt” involving high-profile political and judicial figures in India. The report suggests that while these incidents often conclude with official explanations of accidents or natural causes, they frequently align with strategic power consolidations and the erosion of political accountability.

High-Profile Fatalities During the Modi Era

The analysis highlights several prominent cases occurring during the administration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi that have sparked significant public skepticism and allegations of foul play:

Haren Pandya (2003): A former Home Minister of Gujarat and a known internal critic of Narendra Modi, Pandya was found dead in his car with multiple bullet wounds. His family continues to allege a political conspiracy.

Judge B.H. Loya (2014): The death of the special CBI judge presiding over the Sohrabuddin Sheikh encounter case—where then-BJP President Amit Shah was the primary accused—remains a point of intense controversy. Following Loya’s death, his successor dismissed the case against Shah.

Gopinath Munde (2014): A senior Union Minister who died in a road accident in New Delhi just eight days after the first Modi government was sworn in. Despite a CBI ruling of no foul play, the incident remains a subject of debate among opposition figures.

The “Quartet” (2018–2019): Within a single year, four BJP heavyweights—Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Ananth Kumar, and Manohar Parrikar—died. These deaths facilitated a rapid generational shift that altered the party’s central power structure ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

Recent Aviation Tragedies and Ongoing Risks

The report notes that controversial deaths have continued into the mid-2020s, often involving aviation accidents. Most recently, on January 28, 2026, Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar died in a plane crash. This follows the 2025 death of former Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani in a similar crash, and the 2021 helicopter crash that claimed the life of India’s first Chief of Defence Staff, Gen. Bipin Rawat.

The “Common Thread”: Institutional Autonomy at Risk

Critics cited in the sources identify two primary themes connecting these disparate events. First, the deaths often occur at pivotal moments, resulting in political outcomes that reinforce the control of incumbent leaders. Second, there is deep concern regarding the “weakened autonomy of institutions” responsible for investigating these fatalities.

The report warns that the weaponization of judicial and investigative systems creates a “crisis of credibility”. When official probes are perceived as opaque or swift to rule out foul play, it creates a climate of impunity that suggests even seemingly non-violent deaths may be politically motivated.

A Global Context of Dissent Suppression

While India’s pattern is described as more “ambiguous” than the overt state-sponsored assassinations seen in nations like Russia or Saudi Arabia, the analysis places it within a global playbook of authoritarian tactics. By comparing India’s institutional doubts to international precedents, the report concludes that these tragedies serve as a mechanism for power consolidation and the silencing of potential opposition. This trend represents a significant risk to the personal safety of individuals perceived as threats to entrenched power structures and signals a broader fragility in political accountability.

By Rakesh Raman, who is a national award-winning journalist and social activist. He is the founder of a humanitarian organization RMN Foundation which is working in diverse areas to help the disadvantaged and distressed people in the society.