A new U.S. Census Bureau report released Tuesday provides an in-depth analysis of the nation’s population looking forward to 2060, including its size and composition across age, sex, race, Hispanic origin and nativity.
These projections are the first to incorporate separate projections of fertility for native- and foreign-born women, permitting the Census Bureau to better account for the effects of international migration on the U.S. population.
According to the report, Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060:
- The U.S. population is expected to grow more slowly in future decades than it did in the previous century. Nonetheless, the total population of 319 million in 2014 is projected to reach the 400 million threshold in 2051 and 417 million in 2060.
- Around the time the 2020 Census is conducted, more than half of the nation’s children are expected to be part of a minority race or ethnic group. This proportion is expected to continue to grow so that by 2060, just 36 percent of all children (people under age 18) will be single-race non-Hispanic white, compared with 52 percent today.
- The U.S. population as a whole is expected to follow a similar trend, becoming majority-minority in 2044. The minority population is projected to rise to 56 percent of the total in 2060, compared with 38 percent in 2014.
- While one milestone would be reached by the 2020 Census, another will be achieved by the 2030 Census: all baby boomers will have reached age 65 or older (this will actually occur in 2029). Consequently, in that year, one-in-five Americans would be 65 or older, up from one in seven in 2014.
- By 2060, the nation’s foreign-born population would reach nearly 19 percent of the total population, up from 13 percent in 2014.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the figures in the report are based on the 2014 National Projections, the second series of projections based on the 2010 Census (updating projections released in 2012).